Quantum computing is no longer a dream far off in the future; it may be right around the corner. Gartner predicts that by 2029, quantum computing will advance to the point that it will render traditional cryptography unsafe.
The encryption that we currently rely on to protect data is only effective because our current classic computers haven’t yet figured out how to break them. “Now quantum computers, as we see them evolving, will have an easy path forward to actually crack the old math,” explained Martin Charbonneau, head of quantum-safe networks at Nokia.
Therefore, if companies don’t migrate from these current algorithms to more advanced “quantum-safe algorithms” that can’t be solved even by advanced quantum computers, bad actors might have a way to decrypt data that previously would have been impossible, rendering current data protection strategies ineffective.
Even though predictions of when quantum computers become advanced enough to break our current encryption are years away, many experts are recommending transitioning to quantum-safe cryptographic algorithms sooner rather than later.
One reason for this is to protect data from “harvest now, decrypt later,” which is a strategy in which attackers steal and store encrypted data now, and once they are able to unencrypt it with a quantum computer, they will do so.
“Nobody is saying that when quantum computers come, every communication that’s ever occurred is freely accessible to anybody,” said Dr. Michele Mosca, co-founder of the Institute for Quantum Computing at the University of Waterloo. “That’s certainly not the case, but at the other end, you can’t assure that it isn’t in the hands of adversaries who’ve archived it for future exploitation.”
Vadim Lyubashevsky, a cryptography researcher at IBM Research, explained in an episode of ITOps Times’ “Get with IT” podcast that companies have data that will still be relevant in 2035, so protecting it sooner rather than later can reduce the risk of it falling into the wrong hands.
In addition to “harvest now, decrypt later,” companies also should be acting now because the migration to quantum-safe algorithms will take time to be done properly. It can end up costing more in the long run if companies have to rush this transition, as this increases the opportunity for mistakes, such as implementation errors that open the company up to other kinds of attacks, or mistakes that cause the system to crash entirely.
“If your plan is, I’m going to keep procrastinating and rush later and manage it as a crisis, that’s a very costly bet,” Mosca said.
Charbonneau added: “All of our digital economy is actually based on the trust that we have in our data integrity, authenticity and confidentiality, and if we were to lose it, there’s no Plan B.”
Quantum-safe algorithms are already available
The problem of quantum-safe cryptography is not an unsolvable one, and there have already been advances in the field. For instance, a few months ago NIST approved three quantum-safe algorithms and recommended organizations start migrating to them.
“Quantum computing technology could become a force for solving many of society’s most intractable problems, and the new standards represent NIST’s commitment to ensuring it will not simultaneously disrupt our security,” said Laurie E. Locascio, director of NIST and under secretary of commerce for Standards and Technology, at the time of the announcement. “These finalized standards are the capstone of NIST’s efforts to safeguard our confidential electronic information.”
The three algorithms they approved use different math problems than the current ones, which NIST anticipates a quantum computer would have a hard time breaking.
NIST had first put out a call for proposals for Post-Quantum Cryptography Standardization back in 2016, and these three algorithms were a result of that. The organization is also currently evaluating two other sets of algorithms from that call for proposals, and plans to select one more by the end of the year. NIST also put out a second call for proposals in 2022, from which it plans to approve 15 more algorithms.
One reason why multiple algorithms are being approved is that different signatures have different benefits and tradeoffs, explained Lyubashevsky.
“I would say the main reason that NIST is having an additional round of signature algorithms is that they want something tailored for each scenario, since we can’t seem to get the best of both worlds with one,” he said.
Another benefit of having multiple valid algorithms is that mathematical assumptions can be broken, so it’s good to have options to switch to if that happens, he explained.
“Cybersecurity is like an immune system. It’s not like, ‘Oh, I got my one vaccine and I’m done.’ It’s a constant, it’s a discipline, it’s a practice. So we’ve got to keep inventing new codes, more biodiversity,” said Mosca.
Government regulations will force tighter security
Several regulations tied to improving cybersecurity in general may provide the push companies need to migrate, such as the Network and Information Security Directive version 2 (NIS2) and Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA) in Europe. NIS2’s goal is to improve the EU’s overall cybersecurity, while DORA is meant to ensure that the EU’s financial sector can remain resilient in the event of an operational disruption.
President Joe Biden also announced a National Security Memorandum (NSM 10) in 2022 that lays out actions government agencies should take to begin migrating vulnerable systems to quantum-safe ones, such as directing NIST to establish a “Migration to Post-Qunatum Cryptography Project.”
“Given the complexity, costs, and time required to fully transition to quantum-resistant cryptographic standards, the NSM provides a roadmap for agencies to inventory their IT systems, with a requirement to set and meet specific milestones. Doing so will help ensure that Federal agencies get the support they need to fully and effectively protect their networks from future exploitation,” the White House wrote in an announcement.
He also signed an executive order that enhanced the National Quantum Initiative Advisory Committee, which is an advisory body in the federal government for quantum information and science technology.
According to Charbonneau, regulations have not kept pace with the rate at which the digital economy was built, so more action will be needed in terms of regulation as we enter this next era of security.
Rebuilding the foundations of a 100 story building
According to Mosca, when public key cryptography first began being deployed in the 1990s, it very rapidly became the foundation of the digital economy. He says that it was architected akin to the foundation of a three-story building. It provided pretty good security, and if that foundation collapsed, it would be bad, but at the time when it was being deployed and they did the risk calculation, maybe it was an okay risk to take, he explained.
Fast forward to today and we “went and we built 100 stories on this foundation that was really suitable and resilient for much less, let alone the entire digital economy.” When it comes to addressing that problem, he says that we’ve fallen into the “short-termism trap” for many years where we’ve been too busy fighting fires to work on prevention and strengthening these foundations.
Mosca sees the quantum threat as an impetus that will force us to rethink and rebuild security architectures for the better, providing better overall security.
“Honestly, we would never make changes if it weren’t for at least a very well defined threat that, very fortunately, we’ve been warned about in advance,” he said. “That is really unusual. Usually, threat actors don’t tell you when they think they could break your system. That’s why they’re called zero days. You get exactly zero days of advanced warning. Here we had 30 years of advanced warning that is pure luck, and we can’t really count on luck going forward for something so profound.”
He concluded by saying that though the conversation around the upcoming quantum threat may often sound negative, “the reason we’re so passionate about this is because I want to turn this 100-story building into a thousand-story building, leveraging AI, quantum and all these other things. But of course, we need to build a foundation that’s robust and resilient enough for that. So the reason we want to do all that is so we can take advantage of all the other opportunities that quantum, AI, and new technologies we haven’t even seen yet will allow.”
